The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), has seen outflows equal to roughly 2.7% of assets under management since the war, while the largest spot bitcoin ETF, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), recorded inflows of about 1.5% of assets over the same period, JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a Wednesday report.

The divergence in flows since Feb. 27 has reversed the earlier year-to-date advantage gold ETFs had over bitcoin ETFs, the analysts noted. However, it did not erase the stronger outperformance gold funds had seen during the fourth quarter of 2025.

The analysts said flows since last October showed a rotation from bitcoin into gold, particularly among retail investors. During that period, IBIT saw notable outflows while GLD attracted strong inflows.

Despite that earlier shift, bitcoin ETFs still lead gold ETFs in cumulative flows over a longer period. JPMorgan analysts said IBIT’s total inflows since 2024 are roughly double those seen by GLD.

The analysts also noted that IBIT’s assets under management had nearly caught up with GLD in July last year before the gap widened again as bitcoin prices fell following the market correction that began last October.

Institutional positioning

The JPMorgan analysts said institutional positioning in recent months reflected a shift away from bitcoin.

Short interest in IBIT increased while short interest in GLD declined, narrowing the gap between the two. The analysts said this pattern suggested hedge funds and other institutional investors reduced bitcoin exposure while favoring gold.

Even with that increase, IBIT’s short interest generally remained lower than GLD’s, which the analysts said likely reflects gold’s longer history and deeper institutional adoption.

Options activity also showed a more cautious stance toward bitcoin.

IBIT’s put-to-call open interest ratio moved above GLD’s and stayed higher since last November, marking the first sustained period where bitcoin ETF options showed stronger demand for downside protection than gold ETF options.

A higher put-to-call ratio means investors are buying more protective put options relative to call options. The analysts said this trend indicates rising demand among institutional investors to hedge potential bitcoin downside risk.

They added that the growing use of options on IBIT may signal an evolution in bitcoin’s market structure as investors move beyond simple directional bets toward more advanced hedging strategies.

Volatility and market indicators

Despite the more bullish positioning toward gold implied by falling short interest and lower put-to-call ratios for GLD, the analysts said other market indicators look less supportive for the metal.

Options-implied volatility for GLD has risen more sharply than for IBIT in recent months, suggesting investors expected larger price swings in gold.

At the same time, market breadth weakened more for GLD than for IBIT. The analysts pointed to a rising Hui-Heubel ratio — a measure of market liquidity and breadth — which indicates weaker participation in the gold ETF market.

Meanwhile, bitcoin’s volatility profile shows signs of compressing, which the analysts said reflects deeper institutional ownership and improving market liquidity.

JPMorgan analysts have previously said they remain positive on crypto for this year. Earlier this month, the analysts reiterated their long-term bitcoin price target of $266,000 based on a volatility-adjusted comparison to gold.

Bitcoin was trading at around $70,500 at the time of writing, nearly flat over the past 24 hours, according to The Block’s BTC price page.

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source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/the_block:3e473c7ea094b:0-jpmorgan-says-bitcoin-and-gold-etfs-show-sharp-flow-divergence-since-iran-war/