Bitcoin treads water as war risk rises and rate cuts look distant: analysts

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Crypto prices have oscillated in a narrow band as traders weigh intensifying Iran-related geopolitical risk against a macro backdrop that has kept rates elevated and risk appetite cautious.

Bitcoin (BTC) changed hands for around $66,000 on Monday, after weekend headlines from the Middle East briefly knocked the asset toward the low-$60,000s before buyers pulled it back into its recent range, according to The Block’s prices page. Ether followed a similar path to other altcoins, with investor interest slumping alongside prices, crypto trading desk QCP Capital noted.

The price action has echoed The Block’s earlier reporting that bitcoin stayed steady near $66,000 even as investors monitored the same geopolitical flare-up alongside moves in oil and Asian equities.

QCP stated that roughly $300 million in long liquidations were triggered during the initial move lower, but described the deleveraging as comparatively contained versus more disorderly episodes earlier this year and in 2025. The firm argued it’s a sign that positioning had already been reduced heading into recent volatility.

Derivatives and volatility

Derivatives desks have also pointed to a familiar "fade the news" pattern across macro markets. Laser Digital said U.S. equities rebounded from their lows while the dollar and oil pared early moves, with bitcoin likewise clawing back losses — price action consistent with traders assuming limited economic fallout unless energy supply routes face sustained disruption.

In crypto options, the reaction has been sharp at the front end but less convincing beyond it. QCP said one-day implied volatility briefly jumped as the headlines hit, while the broader volatility complex struggled to hold higher levels.

The firm added that it had observed investors buying upside exposure into late March even as the conflict escalated, suggesting some traders were positioning for a rebound after a run of weak monthly performance.

Macro overhang

Macro-driven caution has remained just as important as geopolitics.

Linh Tran, a senior market analyst at XS.com, said bitcoin has traded "cautiously" around the $66,000 to $67,000 area as markets have reconsidered how quickly the Federal Reserve can ease policy, keeping the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets elevated. She added that geopolitical shocks have tended to raise short-term volatility more than they have reshaped bitcoin’s broader trend, given crypto’s continuing sensitivity to the global liquidity cycle.

Meanwhile, other strategists have stressed the inflation channel. Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, said wars have historically been inflationary — lifting commodity prices and widening fiscal deficits — which can complicate the rate outlook even when risk assets wobble initially.

Amid the military escalation in the Middle East and Fed uncertainty, sentiment gauges have stayed pinned near pessimistic extremes.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 15 on Monday, a level typically categorized as "Extreme Fear," as traders remain hesitant to price making a clean break higher amid both geopolitical tension and a dense macro calendar that includes ISM surveys and U.S. jobs data later this week.

More broadly, BTC is on track for its worst Q1 price performance since 2014, already down over 25% in the first quarter of 2026, per CoinGlass data.

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