Bitcoin Options Signal $1.24B Risk If $60,000 Breaks
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Bitcoin is hovering above a level that could define its next major move. After briefly testing $60,000 on Feb. 6, the token has recovered to around $67,000 in New York trading, yet it remains roughly 47% below its October peak. Options data from Deribit show the largest concentration of contracts are puts positioned below $60,000, with $1.24 billion in open interest at that strike. Just underneath sits Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) 200-week moving average, currently a little above $58,000, a level some technical analysts view as critical support. The setup suggests that if Bitcoin drifts back toward that zone, volatility could reprice quickly rather than fade.
Market structure may be amplifying that risk. According to Maxime Seiler, chief executive of STS Digital, many Bitcoin-backed loans are designed so that if prices approach key collateral thresholds near $60,000, lenders may automatically liquidate holdings to contain losses. That dynamic could push prices lower and potentially trigger a broader deleveraging wave. Traders who have sold put options may also hedge by selling Bitcoin or related futures if spot weakens toward those strikes, adding incremental pressure. IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore has identified the $60,000/$58,000 band as pivotal, noting that a sustained break could open the door to a deeper pullback toward support in the high $40,000s.
Positioning and sentiment appear fragile. The advance that followed the re-election of pro-crypto US President Donald Trump has been fully erased, after more than $19 billion in bullish bets were wiped out in a sharp unwind late last year. Michael Burry (Trades, Portfolio) has cautioned that the downturn could evolve into a self-reinforcing death spiral, while Standard Chartered cut its end-2026 Bitcoin forecast to $100,000, down two-thirds from two months earlier, and said the token could fall to $50,000 before stabilizing a strike that also carries the second-highest put open interest on Deribit. Even as Coinbase Global Inc.
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shares rose in early trading despite a fourth-quarter revenue miss, the stock remains down roughly 50% over the past 12 months, underscoring how equity exposure to crypto could remain tightly linked to Bitcoin's ability to defend $60,000.