This threat to your crypto wallet is even closer than you think, Google warns

[라온]

By Frances Yue

The bar for quantum computers to threaten bitcoin and ether just got lower, according to Google

Bitcoin and ether both edged up on Tuesday.

Breaking the encryption behind major cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ether may be easier than previously thought, according to a blog post and new research paper from Google released Tuesday.

At its core, the report found that breaking into a crypto wallet through quantum computing may take fewer resources than previously expected. It urged the crypto industry to adopt new protective measures before quantum computers become powerful enough to exploit those vulnerabilities. Last week Google set 2029 as a potential milestone for a future quantum computer that can break current encryption for crypto.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and ether (ETHUSD) prices rose Tuesday despite the report, edging up 1.5% and 3.7%, respectively, according to FactSet data.

If the threat from quantum computing were to materialize, it could pose "the largest existential threat" to bitcoin and other major digital assets, according to Chris Tam, president and head of innovation at quantum technology company BTQ Technologies (BTQ). Tam's company, which wasn't involved in creating the Google report, said its findings should be taken seriously by the crypto industry.

Most important, fresh innovations could weigh heavily on bitcoin and ether's prices, Tam said in a phone interview. "If investors knew tomorrow that whatever tokens they hold today would be stolen, or would be able to be moved outside of our accounts without our permission, the value of crypto would obviously be adversely affected."

Specifically, Google's new paper showed a 20-fold reduction in the quantum computing power needed to break the type of math-based security system that secures transactions on bitcoin and ether.

Google's researchers said a quantum computer may be on the horizon that's powerful enough to crack a bitcoin wallet's secret key in as few as nine minutes, potentially giving attackers access to investors' funds. No such machine exists yet, but there may be one within three years, the researchers added. Bitcoin wallets have a secret key known only to the owners, but they have a public address visible to everyone.

As of now, a total of 6.9 million bitcoin, worth roughly $465 billion at Tuesday's prices, are at risk of a quantum attack, according to an estimate by Project Eleven, a company working to develop post-quantum cryptography solutions.

Making matters worse, the bitcoin community is usually relatively slow to make changes to the blockchain, Tam at BTQ Technologies noted.

Tam, however, has a vested interest in the addressing the quantum threat to crypto. BTQ Technologies is developing a separate version of the bitcoin blockchain that it claims will be safe against quantum computing, and it plans to launch its own cryptocurrency in the future.

Bitcoin and ether rise

Bitcoin and ether were trading higher on Tuesday, partially because the quantum risks to crypto may have been mostly priced in, according to Ryan Rasmussen, director and head of research at Bitwise Asset Management. Bitcoin was trading at $67,690 Tuesday afternoon, down 46.4% from its all-time high of $126,272.76, reached on Oct. 6, 2025.

Investors may have already adjusted their allocations in reaction to the quantum risks over the past few months, Rasmussen noted. In January, for instance, Christopher Wood, Jefferies's global head of equity strategy, removed a 10% bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio, citing quantum concerns.

Still, the crypto industry has been working to defend against quantum computing as it accelerates, Rasmussen noted. Bitcoin developers Hunter Beast and Ethan Heilman introduced a draft proposal in 2024 to make bitcoin more resistant to quantum attacks. It was merged into Bitcoin's official improvement proposal repository in February, meaning it is now formally under consideration by the developer community but is still far from being implemented. Meanwhile, the Ethereum Foundation in March launched a dedicated resource hub for its security-upgrade efforts.

While acknowledging the quantum threats are real, Rasmussen said he remains confident that the risk will "be addressed in due time before it becomes an existential threat for crypto."

-Frances Yue

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source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_SN20260331015037:0/