Bitcoin Turns Lower, Reversing Overnight Gains — Market Talk

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0730 GMT - Bitcoin falls, reversing much of its overnight gains amid uncertainty ahead of planned weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively at a standstill despite the U.S. and Iran agreeing a cease-fire with Iran limiting the number of ships passing through the critical energy chokepoint. Iran has cited Israel's ongoing strikes in Lebanon, prompting Trump to ask Israel to scale back attacks. Israel has agreed to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon which are tentatively scheduled for next week. Bitcoin falls 0.8% to $71,820 after reaching a three-week high of $73,067 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0709 GMT - Oil prices rise but remain below $100 a barrel ahead of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran this weekend. "What gets agreed there, specifically whether a workable vessel transit protocol emerges, is the single variable that determines whether this backlog starts to clear," says Emmanuel Belostrino, head of global crude and geopolitical market data at Kpler. In early European trading, Brent crude rises 1% to $96.85 a barrel, while WTI is up 0.8% to $98.65 a barrel. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, while supply disruptions keep markets nervous. An Iranian attack on the East-West Pipeline--currently Saudi Arabia's primary export outlet--lead to a loss of around 700,000 barrels a day in throughput.(giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0706 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields edge lower in opening trade, with markets tentatively calm amid the Middle East cease-fire. "Cautious optimism may prevail today as markets are contemplating prospects for successful ceasefire negotiations over the weekend," Commerzbank's Hauke Siemssens says in a note. Issuance will come from Italy, while France and Spain will announce details of their auctions for next Thursday. The 10-year German Bund yield edges 1 basis point lower to 3.009%, while the 10-year French OAT yield is down 2.5bps at 3.643%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0650 GMT - The dollar rises slightly as oil prices edge higher on concerns about restricted access through the critical Strait of Hormuz even after the U.S. and Iran agreed a cease-fire. Iran is limiting the number of ships passing through the strait, citing Israel's ongoing attacks in Lebanon. Trump asked Israel to scale back attacks that were threatening the cease-fire. Israel has agreed to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon which are tentatively scheduled for next week. The U.S. and Iran have also planned to meet this weekend for talks. Higher oil prices support the dollar as the U.S. is a net oil exporter. The dollar also benefits from its safe-haven status. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 98.961. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0603 GMT - Markets want to rally and Jefferies retains a positive tone, eyeing buy opportunities in phases of market weakness, says global economist Mohit Kumar in a note. Acknowledging the fragile nature of the Middle East cease-fire and risks of a short-term escalation to gain an upper hand in negotiations, he says that phases of weakness, or dips, offer buying opportunities. "But the view that is that any dip would be a buying opportunity," he says. Jefferies is still keeping the risk profile low given the potential for near-term volatility, he adds. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0601 GMT - It is difficult to say whether the U.S. has gained anything from the Middle East war, but its economy is likely to be the least impacted by rising oil and gas prices, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. From a geopolitial perspective, Russia and China are winners of the war, while Iran is likely to get its sanctions removed, says the global economist. The main losers are the Gulf countries who will face an emboldened Iran and their economy has taken a hit, Kumar says. Asia loses on the economic front, given its dependence on oil and gas from the Middle East, while Europe loses on the geopolitical front "as it's becoming clear that the world does not care about the opinion of Europe." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0550 GMT - Uncertainty around the outcome of the Middle East cease-fire is likely to keep investors cautious, limiting the scope for further government-bond-yield spread normalization in the eurozone, Societe Generale's rates strategists say in a note. The U.S.-Iran cease-fire announcement triggered a sharp tightening in yield spreads, led by Italian government bonds, or BTPs. "Our downside scenario targets could be reached within days, but moving materially beyond them would be challenging, as we believe most of the narrowing is now behind us," they say. With large redemptions resulting in slightly negative net government bond supply in the eurozone in April, issuers will likely take advantage of this issuance window, the strategists say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0537 GMT - Societe Generale's baseline scenario is now one of markets pricing in two insurance interest-rate hikes by the European Central Bank in June and September and a resilient economy, keeping the 10-year Bund yield above 3%, its rates strategists say in a note. "This should maintain Bund 10-year above 3% through 2026 and prevent any significant curve inversion," they say. The cease-fire in the Middle East and a de-escalation scenario should bring relative stabilization at the front end of the euro curve, with expectations of ECB terminal rate settling around 2.50%, they say. "A Bund rally below 2.90% could provide opportunities to short duration--still target Bund yield to reach 3.20% in second quarter." The 10-year Bund yield ended at 3.01% on Thursday, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0528 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields are marginally higher in Asian trade as investors remain wary about the sustainability of the Middle East cease-fire and the fragile prospect of a lasting peace. "Amid this fragile equilibrium, investors are likely to remain cautious and opportunistic," Societe Generale rates strategists say in a note. U.S. rates markets are moving from acute escalation risk toward a cautious holding pattern after the U.S.-Iran cease-fire, but confidence in durability remains limited, the strategists say. The two-year Treasury yield rises 1 basis point to 3.791%; the 10-year yield is up 0.6 bp at 4.298% and the 30-year yield edges up 0.3 bp to 4.900%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0523 GMT - Foreign investor demand at U.S. Treasury auctions weakened in March amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and elevated volatility, Barclays's Andres Mok and Demi Hu say in a note. "Overall, foreign participation declined across tenors and has retraced to trend levels following a period of rising demand," the strategists say. As the Middle East conflict intensified and oil prices surged above $100 a barrel, investors pared back expectations for rate cuts this year, they say. "Rates sold off, the curve flattened, and appetite at Treasury auctions weakened." The pullback likely reflects some caution amid heightened uncertainty as rate volatility surged in March, rather than a shift in the underlying demand backdrop, they say. Domestic investors also retreated from front-end auctions but stepped up buying at longer tenors, offsetting reduced foreign participation. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0520 GMT - The Middle East war will leave a mark despite the cease-fire, Barclays' Ajay Rajadhyaksha says in a note. The cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran isn't a refund--there will be a bill for the past six weeks, the debt research analyst writes. Barclays's base case for 2026 is an average Brent price of $85 a barrel. The bond market is still pricing in over two interest-rate hikes by the European Central Bank this year, and the U.S. customer now carries a little less margin of safety than in February, he adds. That said, given the current cease-fire, client reactions show a sense of relief and a desire to get back to fundamentals, he notes. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0443 GMT - The dollar could trade around 4.00-4.05 ringgit next week as relief over the Iran truce gives way to skepticism, according to Kenanga economists. A fragile cease-fire and continuing tensions, including risks around the Hormuz Strait, will keep markets cautious and limit aggressive long ringgit positions until talks show progress, they write. A move toward 3.95 is possible if de-escalation holds, they say. U.S. inflation data is expected to reinforce the Fed's higher-for-longer rate stance, supported by resilient labor conditions. Domestically, Malaysia's 1Q advance GDP will be in focus, while volatile energy prices continue to pose risks to inflation and fiscal stability. Kenanga expects the dollar to face resistance at 4.011 ringgit and find support at 3.955 ringgit. The dollar falls 0.4% to 3.9640 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260410001894:0/