50% of Bitcoin's past 24 months ended in gains: Economist
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Half of the months over the past two years have delivered positive returns for Bitcoin, which may be a strong sign that it will be higher than its current price in December, an economist said.
“50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,” economist Timothy Peterson said in an X post on Saturday. He did not provide details of the statistical model behind the estimate.
In 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) posted gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September, while the other six months ended lower, according to CoinGlass.
Peterson explained that he uses the metric to count the number of positive months in any 24-month period to identify possible inflection points.
Ten months from the time of publication lands on Dec. 22. Traders on crypto prediction platform Polymarket are giving December a 17% chance of being Bitcoin’s best month of 2026, just behind November at 18%.Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest-performing month on average since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%, according to CoinGlass.
Peterson’s forecast comes as Bitcoin’s price trades almost 25% below its level at the beginning of this year, at $68,173 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Analysts are divided on how the asset will perform in the near future. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said on Friday, “I would expect next week to be green for BTC.” “Finalizing this month with a massive candle and a streak of five red months,” he said.Meanwhile, other analysts see more downside ahead. Veteran trader Peter Brand recently told Magazine that Bitcoin’s “real bottom will not occur until October 2026.”
Peterson’s forecast comes as crypto market sentiment continues to decline. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 9 on Sunday, signaling extreme caution among investors.
However, crypto sentiment platform Santiment said on Friday that the “drying up” of Bitcoin price predictions on social media among crypto market participants is a healthy indicator as sentiment returns to “neutral” territory.
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source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:aa01ee749094b:0-50-of-bitcoin-s-past-24-months-ended-in-gains-economist/