Crypto Market Looks to Establish Upward Trend — Market Talk

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1311 ET - Major cryptocurrencies are mixed, according to data from LSEG. Selling pressure appears to be taking a backseat in recent days, says David Duong of Coinbase Institutional in a research note. "Seller pressure also appears to have abated, with liquidations and profit-taking less of a headwind than in prior weeks," says Duong, who adds that this "aligns with a market that is moving from forced de-risking toward more voluntary, discretionary positioning." Bitcoin and ethereum are lower currently, with BTC down 0.6% to $74,411 and ETH down 1.6% to $2,325. But other major cryptos are higher, with solana up 2% to $86.52, XRP up 3% to $1.43, and dogecoin up 2.3% to 9.7 cents. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1309 ET - The Canadian dollar's response to higher energy prices triggered by the war in Iran will remain subdued, says Oliver Gervais, director of economic forecasting at Bank of Nova Scotia. He says the link between CAD and crude-oil prices has weakened materially over the past decade, and the current episode is no exception. Canada is a net crude exporter, so national income is set to climb due to higher energy prices. Gervais, however, says his modeling indicates a stronger appreciation in CAD tied to demand-driven oil price increases rather than jumps due to supply shocks. He estimates that a 10% rise in WTI prices linked to supply shocks leads to CAD appreciation of 1%, versus a 3% appreciation from demand-driven factors. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1258 ET - Recent U.S. homebuying demand is unseasonably low, Redfin says. Higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty are delaying big purchases for some Americans. Pending home sales fell 4.1% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending April 12, Redfin says, the biggest decline in over a year. Sales fell in all but seven of the 50 biggest U.S. metro areas, with the largest declines in Providence, Houston and Nassau County, N.Y. The biggest increases were in San Francisco, West Palm Beach, Fla., and Miami. Home-touring activity is up just 11% since the start of the year, compared to a 40% increase over the same period last year. High housing costs are also sidelining house hunters. The median home-sale price rose 2.3% annually. Easter fell into this four-week period, but not the comparable period in 2025. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1206 ET - Demand for Treasurys weakens and yields rise as U.S. indicators surprise on the upside and markets cling to talks of a possible extension of the U.S.-Iran cease-fire. President Trump says an Israel-Lebanon cease-fire will begin at 5 p.m. ET. Futures markets see an increase in bets that the Fed won't cut rates for at least a year. Jobless claims decline and the Philadelphia Fed business activity index sharply accelerates, while March industrial production contracts slightly. The 10-year is at 4.295%, up from an intraday low of 4.266%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1122 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds climb after the U.S. said it will pursue Iran-linked ships beyond the Middle East. The U.S. expanded its blockade of Iran to "all ships, regardless of nationality," the chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine told a press briefing. Previously, the blockade covered only ships sailing to and from Iranian ports. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking at the same briefing, said the blockade would continue as long as necessary. Ten-year gilt yields rise 6.2 basis points to last trade at 4.860% following the announcement, reversing earlier declines, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1106 ET - U.K. inflation data for March, set to be released on April 22, is expected to show prices climbed from February's level due to high energy prices, Deutsche Bank Research's Sanjay Raja says in a note. U.K. annual headline inflation rose 3.0% in February, unchanged from January. Annual headline inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.3% in March, Raja says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1021 ET - The median home sale price in the San Francisco metropolitan area jumped 14.4% year-over-year in March, Redfin says, to a record $1.7 million. San Francisco has now reclaimed its title as the major U.S. metro with the highest home prices, eclipsing neighboring San Jose, which held that title for much of 2024 and 2025. Condo prices in San Francisco rose particularly quickly, posting a 24.4% year-over-year increase last month. Redfin says San Francisco's housing market has been heating up as a boom in the artificial intelligence industry and a return to the office have coincided with a lack of inventory. The typical San Francisco home that sold in March went for 8.9% more than its final list price. By comparison, the typical U.S. home sold for 1.3% below its final list price--the biggest March discount since 2020, Redfin says. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1012 ET - Inflationary crosscurrents from tariffs and the Iran war have made an extended interest-rate pause appropriate, New York Fed President John Williams tells reporters. He adds that if those conditions subside, the Fed's natural next step would be to ease policy further. "It's not a time to try to give strong forward guidance one way or the other," Williams says. He adds: "Over a longer period of time, as inflation comes back to 2%, I do think it will be appropriate to bring interest rates down. But that's not where we are today." Williams' comments lean slightly against bets that now predominate in financial markets, which reflect expectations that the Fed could well hold rates steady at the current 3.5% to 3.75% range until at least this time next year. (matt.grossman@wsj.com;@mattgrossman)

0956 ET - Despite striking a hawkish tone at its meeting in March, the European Central Bank won't be in a hurry to hike interest rates, Carsten Brzeski at ING says. Risks are tilted towards higher inflation and the market is pricing in an aggressive interest-rate path. But the central bank doesn't yet expect a repeat of 2022's big jump in inflation given low consumer confidence and already-restrictive policy, Brzeski says. ING sees an initial wave of inflation, but as long as this remains time-limited then rate hikes shouldn't be needed. The ECB is likely to hold rates at the April meeting.However, policymakers might provide on "insurance hike" in June, especially if inflation exceeds 4%, Brzeski says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0950 ET - The Japanese yen could struggle to recover materially despite the prospect of currency interventions and the Bank of Japan raising interest rates further, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Barring a big drop in energy prices or much lower U.S. interest rates, Japanese officials' threats of interventions to strengthen the yen could have little impact, he says. Meanwhile, expectations for a BOJ rate rise on April 28 are too low, and if delivered, should prevent the dollar from rising above 160 yen, he says. "But the conditions for a sustained drop in dollar-yen have yet to be met and we favor a continued 155-160 range for the rest of the quarter." The dollar rises 0.1% to 159.10 yen. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0925 ET - Investors cut back their expectations of the Bank of England raising interest rates in April as optimism around U.S.-Iran peace talks grows. "Markets are still clinging to hopes of a resolution to the Middle East conflict," AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth says in a note. Investors currently price in a 10% chance of the BOE raising interest rates at its April 30 rate decision, down from an 87% chance priced in at the peak of the Middle East conflict three weeks ago, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0919 ET - The Australian dollar has further potential to rise on the prospect of the Reserve Bank of Australia delivering more interest-rate rises, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. The market remains fully priced for another 25 basis-point rate rise within three months, encouraged by another round of strong labor data Thursday, she says. "While the U.S. dollar continues to be driven by sentiment based around the war in the Middle East suggesting it could be susceptible to large swings, we expect further downside in euro versus the Australian dollar back towards the March low around 1.6130." The euro falls 0.2% to 1.6423 Australian dollars after reaching a four-week low of 1.6405 earlier, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260416007521:0/