Key Bitcoin onchain signal may mark BTC’s next demand revival
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Onchain data tracking Bitcoin’s (BTC) investor profitability has dropped back toward the long-term average, indicating a possible valuation reset. At the same time, crypto exchange order flow shows an easing of aggressive selling pressure, with the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) rising marginally even as the spot trading volume dropped to $6 billion from $7.6 billion.
These changes are shaping expectations around when stronger spot demand may return for BTC and whether this will lead to a trend reversal.Bitcoin valuation metric resets toward the historical mean
Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish said that the Bitcoin market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has normalized after the prior +1 standard deviation extremes were fully reset.
Together, these signals describe the defensive phase. BTC holders are not capitulating in size, while the new capital inflows have not yet reversed the realized cap trend. Adler Jr. said that the current trend remains “neutrally defensive” until the cap returns to positive momentum.Related: Bitcoin traders 'excess loss-realization' may push BTC price below $44K
Bitcoin volume delta shows the cautious absorption
The exchange flow data aligns with that stance. The Glassnode data shows the spot cumulative volume delta improved to -$161.5 million from -$177.1 million, signaling a modest reduction in the aggressive selling.
The CVD measures the cumulative difference between the buy and sell market orders. The spot trading volume dropped to $6.0 billion from $7.6 billion, pointing to the thinner participation and the choppier price action.In prior cycles, sharp CVD drawdowns during price declines have aligned with local bottom formation once selling pressure began to stabilize. BTC price holding within the $62,000–$64,000 range, alongside a flattening in CVD, may signal that supply is being absorbed more efficiently, particularly if spot participation begins to recover from current subdued levels.
Related: Bitcoin 'fair value' gap sets $45K target as AI woes haunt stocks, gold
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:3da625385094b:0-key-bitcoin-onchain-signal-may-mark-btc-s-next-demand-revival/