Bybit and Block Scholes Report Highlights Diverging Signals in Bitcoin Derivatives Markets

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DUBAI, UAE, Feb. 27, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Bybit, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange in terms of trading volume, has released its latest Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics report, which analyzes recent volatility, market positioning, and sentiment within the Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives markets.

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The report details how Bitcoin emerged from a prolonged period of low volatility after briefly falling to $62,000, followed by a sharp rebound towards the $68,000 level. While spot prices have largely recovered from the decline, derivatives markets continue to indicate caution.

Key findings:

Bitcoin's realized volatility increased significantly after weeks of relative stability.
Options markets aggressively priced in the risk of further declines during the sell-off, but did not adjust to reflect higher prices during the subsequent rebound.
One-week at-the-money implied volatility rose to approximately 60%, resulting in a slight inversion of the volatility curve's front end.
The skew has eased from extreme levels, but it still favors downside protection.
Perpetual futures open interest continues to decline, suggesting a limited demand for leveraged trading.
"The $70,000 level has acted as a psychological barrier for Bitcoin investors for much of this month, putting the world's oldest and largest cryptocurrency on track for its fifth consecutive monthly decline," said Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Bybit Learn. "However, as the underlying fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market remain positive, this current confidence crisis could ultimately create an opportunity for a strong bullish trend to emerge. Flows could reverse once there is greater clarity regarding macroeconomic factors, particularly concerning Federal Reserve policy or U.S. trade policy."

The report indicates that, despite the rebound in spot prices, derivative markets remain cautiously positioned. Short-term options continue to reflect demand for protection against further declines, and volatility levels during the recovery period remain significantly lower than those observed during the peak of the sell-off.

Broader indicators reinforce the cautious outlook. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for four consecutive months, putting Bitcoin on track for its fifth straight monthly decline, a pattern last observed during the bear market following the 2018 ICO cycle. Ethereum shows a similar trend, with spot Ether ETFs nearing a fourth month of net outflows since their launch in July 2024. Weak retail sentiment and declining leverage further highlight the lack of confidence behind the recent price recovery.

The complete Bybit x Block Scholes report is available for download.

#Bybit / #CryptoArk / #BybitLearn

About Bybit:

Bybit is a cryptocurrency exchange established in March 2018. It offers spot and derivatives trading, staking, and other services. The company is registered in the British Virgin Islands

Bybit is the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, serving a global community of over 80 million users. Founded in 2018, Bybit is redefining openness in the decentralized world by creating a simpler, more open, and equitable ecosystem for everyone. With a strong focus on Web3, Bybit strategically partners with leading blockchain protocols to provide robust infrastructure and drive on-chain innovation. Renowned for its secure custody, diverse marketplaces, intuitive user experience, and advanced blockchain tools, Bybit bridges the gap between traditional finance and decentralized finance, empowering builders, creators, and enthusiasts to unlock the full potential of Web3. Discover the future of decentralized finance at Bybit.com.

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Bybit and Block Scholes Report Highlights Diverging Signals in Bitcoin Derivatives Markets