Iran crypto outflows jump post-airstrikes in a recurring crisis pattern: Chainalysis

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Crypto seems to act as a pressure valve in Iran as geopolitical shocks trigger predictable onchain patterns seen before.

Onchain data show Iranian crypto exchanges experienced a burst of outflows in the hours after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Feb. 28, with roughly $10.3 million in crypto assets leaving major platforms through March 2, according to a new analysis from Chainalysis.

Hourly volumes, which had been relatively subdued beforehand, climbed sharply once news of the strikes broke, at times approaching or exceeding $2 million per hour. The pattern echoes earlier reporting from Elliptic that outflows from Iran’s largest exchange surged 700% immediately after the attack, while TRM Labs noted that overall trading volumes later plunged 80% even as the ecosystem remained structurally intact.

Deja vu

Chainalysis argues the latest movements are part of a longer-running dynamic rather than a one-off reaction. In a January report, the firm estimated Iran's crypto ecosystem reached about $7.8 billion in 2025, with trading volumes and onchain transfers consistently spiking around major domestic unrest and regional confrontations.

Those episodes — including protest waves, direct clashes with Israel and sanctions escalations — often coincided with a weakening rial, high inflation and tighter financial controls. In that environment, crypto has functioned as an alternative channel for value storage and transfer for both individuals and, at times, state-linked actors, Chainalysis experts noted.

The firm pointed to prior protest periods in which bitcoin (BTC) withdrawals from Iranian exchanges rose steadily in the days before a government-imposed internet blackout.

Outflows climbed into early January, then effectively flatlined once connectivity was cut, before resuming when access returned. The sequence suggested that some users anticipated restrictions and moved funds into self-custody while they still could.

Destination unknown

Where the funds ultimately land remains unclear, and the immediate aftermath of the airstrikes complicates interpretation.

Internet throttling, exchange outages, and operational security measures can all distort short-term signals. Chainalysis said it is too early to determine how much of the $10.3 million in outflows reflects retail flight, internal exchange management, or state-related activity, and that further wallet-level tracking will be needed as funds move onward.

"The truth is that from this close to the events, it’s extremely difficult to confidently separate retail flight from service-level wallet management, from state-related activity," the firm wrote.

A breakdown of transfers by size and destination shows flows heading to overseas mainstream exchanges, other domestic platforms, and a large share to "other wallets." Those addresses could represent retail users pulling funds into self-custody, exchanges shifting liquidity to new infrastructure to reduce onchain visibility, or state-aligned actors routing funds through local venues.

Rather than a simple surge in withdrawals, Chainalysis suggests a recurring pattern in which digital assets serve as a release valve during moments of stress — even if the identities and motives behind individual transfers remain, for now, unresolved.

Iranian exchanges have also faced sustained sanctions pressure and cyber risk, including a 2025 hack of Nobitex that resulted in the theft of more than $90 million. In periods of heightened political tension, platforms may move significant liquidity away from well-known wallets as a defensive measure.

At the same time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other state-linked actors have previously relied on domestic channels to facilitate cross-border transfers and evade sanctions, as detailed in earlier reporting by The Block.

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